# Impact Pathway – A Tool for Evaluating Alternative Futures, Action Portfolios, and Adaptive Pathways

> Impact Pathway supports decisions under uncertainty by linking scenarios, actions and adaptive pathways.

## Overview
The more complex the operating environment, the more difficult it becomes to identify the most impactful actions and assess their performance across different futures. Impact Pathway is an open-source prototype that integrates the evaluation of alternative futures, action portfolios, and adaptive pathways into a single framework. 

The approach enables focused workshops that, with relatively modest resources, generate new insights, support well-founded prioritization, and produce concrete action plans for implementation.

## Methodological Foundations
Impact Pathway is an open, facilitator-led approach based on participant assessments, analysis of interdependencies, and an open web-based application. It addresses three core questions:
1. **What could happen?** (Scenario analysis)
2. **What should be done?** (Portfolio analysis)
3. **How well will the plan perform under different futures?** (Adaptive analysis)

The method builds upon a long line of methodological development at Savonia University of Applied Sciences, including the A’WOT approach, business model evaluation, and the PRIA approach.

## Methods and Tool Development
### Analytical Levels
* **Scenario Analysis:** Uses morphological scenario analysis to identify key uncertainties and their alternative future states.
* **Portfolio Analysis:** Examines combinations of actions, including their synergies and conflicts, using robust portfolio modeling.
* **Adaptive Analysis:** Combines the above to evaluate how well selected solutions perform across different future pathways and changing circumstances.

### Robust Frequency (RF) Analysis
The robustness of results is evaluated using Robust Frequency (RF) analysis. By running the analysis under multiple assumption sets, the tool identifies which future states, actions, or pathways appear most frequently among the best-performing alternatives.

### Tool Development
The tool evolved from an Excel-based system into a web-based application to improve accessibility and performance. The development followed an iterative AI-assisted process (AI pair programming) using GPT-4o and later models. The architecture utilizes:
* **GitHub:** Version control and documentation.
* **Supabase:** Data repository and user management.
* **Render:** Hosting and server operations.

## Case Example: Pohjolan Matka Ltd
In autumn 2025, Pohjolan Matka participated in a series of workshops to improve preparedness for extreme weather events. 
* **Scenario Analysis:** Identified recurring storms, infrastructure damage, and information system failures as critical threats.
* **Portfolio Analysis:** Prioritized the development of a preparedness plan, real-time weather information usage, and staff training.
* **Adaptive Analysis:** Evaluated 6,144 potential pathways to determine how the company should respond to specific triggers (e.g., storms) to reach desired outcomes.

The CEO of Pohjolan Matka, Johanna Lehtonen, noted that the workshops were "pleasantly concise, yet surprisingly rich in content," providing a practical action plan that improved safety and served as a competitive advantage.

## Discussion and Future Development
The study confirms that integrating scenarios, portfolios, and adaptive planning into a single framework is highly effective for complex decision-making. Key strengths include:
* **Systemic Visibility:** Making interdependencies between actions and futures explicit.
* **Robustness:** Using RF analysis to move beyond single-point optimization.
* **Usability:** The web-based interface lowers the barrier for participatory workshops.

Future development will focus on incorporating a temporal dimension into adaptive pathways, further leveraging AI for pre-populating assessments, and conducting more research on the reliability of expert-led assessments.

## References
* Belton, V. & Stewart, T.J. 2002. *Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach*.
* Haasnoot, M., et al. 2013. *Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways*. Global Environmental Change.
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* Kajanus, M., et al. 2014. *Business model design*. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research.
* Kuntaliitto. 2022. *Ilmasto-ohjelman rakennemalli*.
* Kurttila, M., et al. 2000. *Utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in SWOT analysis*.
* Lempert, R., et al. 2003. *Shaping the Next One Hundred Years*.
* Leskinen, L., et al. 2006. *Adapting modern strategic decision support tools*.
* Liesiö, J., et al. 2007. *Robust portfolio modeling*. European Journal of Operational Research.
* Lukmine, D., et al. 2025. *Testing the Prospective Rapid Impact Assessment Approach*. Sustainability.
* Mustajoki, J., et al. 2024. *A portfolio decision analysis approach for selecting a subset of interdependent actions*. Science of The Total Environment.
* Paldanius, K. & Kajanus, M. 2021. *Future divercities-project (e)valuation report*.
* Puurunen, A., et al. 2020. *Neuromodulation nurses, teamwork, and the establishment of a multi-disciplinary pain center*.
* Rittel, H.W.J. & Webber, M.M. 1973. *Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning*.
* Sitra. 2021a/b. *Viheliäinen ongelma / Taksonomia tulee*.
* Unruh, G.C. 2000. *Understanding carbon lock-in*. Energy Policy.

## Links
* [The tool](https://impact-pathway-web-pilot.onrender.com)
* [User and development community](https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%3Akl7gJrgfO4eoFwi3IwXU8l6ek1vpHq8nIMbD01uz4201%40thread.tacv2/conversations?groupId=480dacea-3c81-4ee0-82ac-469cdb884f74&tenantId=b6d5681b-4a40-4d3a-8e7b-03a70d3991b6)

## Project Team
* Miika Kajanus
* Antti Kotimaa
* Minna Luoto
* Lauri Kerman
* Hannu Autti
* Seppo Koponen
* Timo Dunkel
* Kaija Vilman
* Jukka Kähkönen
* Tuomo Eskelinen
* Jyri Wuorisalo
* Anni Kesänen